热夜和死亡率之间的短期关联: 178个地点的多国分析,考虑每小时的环境温度
Dominic Royé1, Francesco Sera2, Aurelio Tobías3
1Biological Mision of Galicia (MBG) - Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Spain; Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain; Spanish Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health-CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain.
Environment international
|August 29, 2025
概括
炎热的夜晚增加了死亡风险. 这项研究量化了炎热夜晚的特征与死亡之间的关联,为适应气候变化的公共卫生战略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 环境健康
- 气候变化研究
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 需要了解全球气温的上升和更频繁的炎热夜晚对健康的影响.
- 目前对炎热夜晚对死亡率的具体影响的研究有限.
- 气候变化预测显示,包括炎热夜晚在内的极端高温事件将持续增加.
研究的目的:
- 量化炎热夜间热特性与每日死亡率之间的关系.
- 估计全球因炎热夜晚造成的死亡率.
- 为公众健康和适应与热有关的风险提供信息.
主要方法:
- 在全球178个地点使用分布式滞后非线性回归模型.
- 在温暖的季节分析了每小时的环境温度和每日死亡率数据.
- 使用多变量元回归来汇总结果并估计人口层面的死亡负担.
主要成果:
- 在炎热的夜晚和死亡风险之间发现了显著的积极关联.
- 极端炎热的夜晚 (第90个百分位) 显示死亡的相对风险约为1.026.
- 对极端炎热夜晚的可归因死亡率估计约为0.60%~0.62%.
结论:
- 炎热的夜晚会导致与热相关的死亡.
- 了解夜间热特性每小时的影响至关重要.
- 结果支持改善公共卫生干预和长期适应计划的决策.
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