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使用股票价格变动来估计商药品专利诉讼和解的损害
Keith M Drake1, Thomas G McGuire2
1Greylock McKinnon Associates and Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, USA.
制药行业的专利纠纷拖延了仿制药的竞争, 这项研究估计这些延误每年会给美国消费者带来数十亿美元的损失,
科学领域:
- 健康经济学
- 制药政策
- 知识产权法
背景情况:
- 药品定价涉及研发激励和市场效率之间的权衡.
- 品牌药物价格一直很高,直到出现仿制药的竞争,
- 品牌制造商向竞争对手支付费用以延迟进入市场的秘密协议是全球制药市场的一个重要问题,特别是在美国.
研究的目的:
- 估计美国药品购买者的财务影响.
- 量化由于这些结算而延迟的通用药物投入所导致的增加支出.
主要方法:
- 分析品牌制药公司在结算公告后的股价变动.
- 应用事件研究方法来评估勾结的财务影响.
- 在2014年至2023年间,从64项协议的数据集中识别出潜在的勾结性和解.
主要成果:
- 没有勾结迹象的和解没有显著影响品牌公司的股价.
- 有勾结迹象的和解导致品牌公司的平均股价上约3.5%.
- 这种股票价格上表明仿制药的进入延迟了,品牌利增加了,估计美国买家每年增加了31亿至32亿美元的支出.
结论:
- 美国的药品消费者在密谋的专利和解中大幅增加了药品消费.
- 由于仿制药的推迟进入,购买者的年度成本估计相当大,在整个行业中可能达到120亿美元.
- 这些发现凸显了制药行业反竞争行为的经济后果.
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