在191个国家减少贫血的成本效益目标:一个建模研究
Robin Blythe1, Natalie Carvalho2, Jacinta Holloway-Brown3
1Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
The Lancet. Haematology
|August 29, 2025
概括
全球妇女贫血减少目标是无法实现的. 一个新的健康经济模型显示,到2030年可实现17%的减少,为人类发展提供现实的进展.
科学领域:
- 全球健康
- 健康经济学
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 贫血症在全球面临重大健康和经济挑战.
- 目前在生育年龄的妇女中减少贫血的国际目标不太可能实现.
- 现有的目标可能是抱负性的,而不是基于可实现的干预措施.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的方法来设定可行和雄心勃勃的全球健康目标.
- 通过健康经济模型,确定在生育年龄的妇女中减少贫血的可实现目标.
- 评估减少贫血的干预措施的成本效益.
主要方法:
- 制定了国家一级的贫血目标设定卫生经济模型.
- 关于贫血患病率,干预效率,成本和成本效益值的综合国家具体数据.
- 在国家一级的成本效益门内 (人均GDP的1倍) 实施干预措施,以最大限度地提高健康效益.
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟和场景分析评估不确定性.
主要成果:
- 一个雄心勃勃,可实现和成本效益的全球贫血减少目标是到2030年15-49岁的妇女占17% (95%UI5-34).
- 如果消除成本限制,可实现的最大降低是22% (11-36).
- 现有干预措施无法实现目前50%的可持续发展目标减少目标.
- 各个国家的减排目标在0%至29%之间.
结论:
- 基于价值的全球贫血减少目标应低于目前的国际承诺.
- 在不同国家背景下基于可实现的干预措施和成本效益的设定目标为进步提供了更好的激励.
- 这种方法为人类发展和全球卫生倡议提供了更现实的预测.
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