预测美国30年阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停的负担:前性建模研究
Elroy Boers1, Meredith A Barrett1, Adam V Benjafield1
1Resmed Science Center, San Diego California, San Diego, CA, USA.
The Lancet. Respiratory medicine
|August 29, 2025
概括
预计到2050年,阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停会影响7660万美国成年人,女性患病率不成比例. 迫切需要制定公共卫生战略来应对这种日益严重的负担.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 流行病学
- 医学研究
背景情况:
- 阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停 (OSA) 在美国构成了重大公共卫生和经济挑战.
- 之前的研究已经确定了OSA的患病率,但未来的预测是政策指导的必要条件.
研究的目的:
- 估计美国从2020年到2050年的阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停 (OSA) 负担.
- 为公共卫生政策和OSA管理战略提供信息.
- 为特定的人口群体制定有针对性的干预措施.
主要方法:
- 一个前性建模研究,利用从纵向队列的OSA流行数据.
- 纳入来自验证来源的美国人口年龄,性别和体重指数 (BMI) 数据.
- 开发一个开放的队列动态人口模拟模型来预测未来的OSA负担.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,OSA患病率将增加34.7%,达到成年人口的46.2%.
- 据估计,到2050年,美国将有7660万成年人患有OSA.
- 预计女性的OSA患病率相对增加 (65. 4%) 与男性 (19. 3%) 相比.
结论:
- 预计到2050年,阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停 (OSA) 将影响7660万美国成年人.
- 这项研究突显出女性中OSA患病率的不成比例增加.
- 迫切需要针对性公共卫生战略和改善OSA的诊断/随访途径,特别是对于女性.
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