基于多队列机器学习和可解释的人工智能的晚年抑郁症跨文化预测模型
Lu Liu1, Lei Tang2, Menqin Dai1
1Mental Health Center, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, China; School of Psychiatry, North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, China; Key Laboratory of Digital-Intelligent Disease Surveillance and Health Governance, North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, China.
Journal of affective disorders
|August 29, 2025
概括
一个机器学习模型有效地预测了老年人的抑郁症. 关键预测因素包括自我评估的健康和功能状态,为全球心理健康战略提供信息.
科学领域:
- 老年学
- 计算精神病学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 晚年抑郁症在全球面临重大健康挑战.
- 老年人患抑郁症的危险因素在不同人群中存在很大差异.
- 需要可靠的工具来预测这一群体的抑郁症.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测60岁及以上成年人的抑郁症的机器学习 (ML) 模型.
- 利用美国和中国的统一数据进行模型开发和外部验证.
- 确保该模型既可靠又可用于临床应用.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自健康与退休研究 (HRS) 和中国健康与退休纵向研究 (CHARLS) 的统一数据.
- 波鲁塔算法进行了特征选择,并对17个ML算法进行了评估.
- 使用AUC,决策曲线分析,校准图和SHAP值进行模型性能评估,并使用CHARLS数据进行外部验证.
主要成果:
- 渐变增强机 (GBM) 模型表现出优异的性能,AUC为0. 752 (训练),0. 763 (内部验证) 和0. 717 (外部验证).
- 在各种值中,GBM模型表现出良好的校准和临床效用.
- SHAP分析显示自我评价的健康,功能依赖,自我评价的记忆,关节炎和ADL得分是主要预测因素.
结论:
- 成功开发了一种强大且可解释的ML模型来预测晚年抑郁症.
- 该模型表明文化上不同的人群 (美国和中国) 的普遍性.
- 这些发现强调了共同的预测因素,同时强调了对特定人群的临床考虑的必要性.
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