符合中国净零路径的2°C可信的全球排放情况
Junting Zhong1,2, Xiaoye Zhang3,4, Da Zhang2,5,6
1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|August 29, 2025
概括
中国的碳中和目标将重塑全球排放,到2062年达到二氧化碳的峰值, 这一途径稳定了气候变暖接近2°C的趋势,不需要采取极端措施,符合巴黎协议的目标.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
- 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 人为二氧化碳排放导致全球变暖.
- 中国向碳中和转型显著影响全球排放.
- 了解这些影响对于气候预测和政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个符合现实的中国净零路径.
- 在这种情况下预测全球和区域气候影响.
- 评估稳定升温接近2°C的可行性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个跨学科的多模型框架.
- 综合更新的排放清单和中国的净零路径.
- 为温室气体和空气污染物构建了一个特定部门的综合场景 (SSP2-com).
主要成果:
- 预计全球二氧化碳排放量将在2062年达到峰值,并在2072年达到零,主要由亚太地区推动.
- 气候模拟器显示,到2100年全球气温将达到2.01°C,然后下降到2°C以下.
- 结果表明平衡的脱碳可以稳定近2°C的变暖.
结论:
- 中国平衡的,国家决定的脱碳是稳定全球变暖的关键.
- 提出的SSP2-com框架提供了可信的地球系统模型输入.
- 这种方法符合目前的承诺,并加强国际合作.
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