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Updated: Sep 9, 2025

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Published on: June 30, 2020
在北半球极端寒冷的变化
Yu Nie1, Ying Sun2, Xuebin Zhang3
1State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, Beijing, China.
极端冷浪在中高度地区因温室气体强迫而减弱,影响天气模式. 未来预测显示这些地区的寒冷事件将继续减弱.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气科学
- 天气学
背景情况:
- 极端寒流对人类健康,能源系统和生态系统产生重大影响.
- 了解冷浪的变化及其驱动因素至关重要,
研究的目的:
- 研究极端寒冷的变化及其潜在机制.
- 确定人为强迫对冷浪潮趋势的影响.
主要方法:
- 对近地热力学预算的分析.
- 诊断温度偏向和午线温度梯度.
主要成果:
- 在中高度大陆, 极端寒潮在秋季和冬季已经减弱.
- 这种减弱主要是由于人为因素,特别是温室气体排放.
- 低度地区的寒潮变化很小,与中高度地区不同.
结论:
- 温室气体迫使温度梯度发生变化,导致中高度地区的寒潮较弱.
- 未来的预测表明,在SSP 3-7.0下,冷浪强度将在2100年减少8%至13%.
- 人类影响是极端寒潮中观察到的变化的主要驱动因素.
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