机器学习和反事实推理集成的决定框架用于整治:由铁板调节驱动的预测优化和成本效益分析
Ye Li1, Jie Hou2, Mengqi Liu2
1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China.
Journal of hazardous materials
|August 30, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种机器学习框架,用于预测大米中的 (Cd) 积累,从而实现积极的土壤整治. 它确定了铁斑,Fe和pH等关键因素,以实现有效的,经济高效的环境管理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 农业科学
- 数据科学
背景情况:
- 田中的污染对食品安全和人类健康构成风险.
- 传统的补救方法是缓慢的, 缺乏有效性的预先评估.
- 在土中,铁斑形成是使Cd不动的一个关键机制.
研究的目的:
- 通过机器学习和因果推理,开发中Cd积累的预测框架.
- 确定影响谷物Cd含量的关键土壤指标.
- 为Cd污染的田提供具体的,具有成本效益的整治策略.
主要方法:
- 分析了76个配对的土壤和大米样本.
- 应用极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 和SHapley添加式扩展 (SHAP) 进行驾驶员识别.
- 结构方程建模 (SEM) 来阐明因果路径.
- 用于场景分析的反事实模拟.
- 对整治战略的经济评估.
主要成果:
- 从31个指标中确定了6个谷物Cd积累的关键驱动因素.
- 铁斑减少了38.6%的根Cd积累,主要受可用的Fe (41.9%) 和pH (37.7%) 的影响.
- 为了保持谷物Cd在0.2 mg·kg-1以下,确定了Fe可用性的最佳值 (300-400 mg·kg-1) 和pH (>5.5).
- 具体区域的修改 (FeSO4或Na2SiO3) 显示出显著的经济效益.
结论:
- 综合框架可以为环境修复提供主动,数据驱动的决策.
- 它将整治计划从反应性转变为预防性,优化成本效益结果.
- 这种方法提供了一个可扩展的解决方案来管理农业用地的Cd污染.
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