来自国际在线教育评估系统的日志数据分析:多状态生存建模方法
Jina Park1,2, Ick Hoon Jin1,2, Minjeong Jeon3
1Department of Applied Statistics, https://ror.org/01wjejq96Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea.
Psychometrika
|September 1, 2025
概括
本研究引入了多状态生存模型 (MSM) 来分析在线评估日志数据. 该模型揭示了因素如何影响考生
科学领域:
- 教育测量
- 心理测量
- 数据科学
背景情况:
- 基于计算机的评估产生了大量的日志数据.
- 分析这些数据可以了解考生解决问题的过程.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉动作序列的动态.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的多状态生存模型 (MSM) 来分析评估日志中的行动序列数据.
- 调查影响受试者行动之间的转换速度的因素.
- 确定区分正确和不正确的问题解决模式的关键行动.
主要方法:
- 开发了日志文件动作序列的多状态生存模型 (MSM).
- 连续行动之间的模拟反应时间.
- 在正确和不正确答案组之间比较过渡概率.
- 使用模拟研究和灵敏度分析进行模型验证.
- 将模型应用于国际成年人能力评估计划 (PIAAC) 的数据.
主要成果:
- 这项研究有效地模拟了行动之间的过渡速度.
- 确定了区分正确和不正确反应的具体行动.
- 揭示了与正确与不正确答案轨迹相关的问题解决模式.
- 该模型通过模拟和灵敏度分析证明了它的稳定性.
结论:
- 拟议的MSM为分析基于计算机的复杂问题解决行为提供了强大的工具.
- 了解行动过渡动态可以提高诊断反和评估设计.
- 这种方法在评估过程中提供了对认知过程的细微见解,以PIAAC数据为例.
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