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成人和儿童决策中的概率错误
Dean A Marshall1, Elizabeth Meins2
1School of Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK.
Cognition
|September 1, 2025
概括
成年人在客观和社会判断中表现出错误的结合, 儿童表现出这些错误不那么一致,相关性仅在老年人群中出现,这表明启发性思维的发展转变.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学
- 发展心理学
- 行为经济学
背景情况:
- 连接错误,其中P(A和B) >P(A),通常归因于代表性启发式.
- 启发性思维是学习的,并且依赖于环境,需要一种发展性的方法来理解它的起源.
研究的目的:
- 在客观概率和社会判断任务中调查结合谬误的发展轨迹.
- 检查不同年龄组客观和社会判断中的结合谬误之间的关系.
- 评估"大声思考"程序对减少谬误的影响.
主要方法:
- 三项涉及成人和儿童 (4至11岁) 的研究使用基于个人描述的芯片/区块分布和社会判断来评估客观概率判断.
- 参与者确定了单人与双人场景的赢家,并评估了社会特征.
- 研究3采用"大声思考"的方案来鼓励合理的决策.
主要成果:
- 成年人的结合谬论受到赢得概率的影响,并与客观和社会判断相关.
- 孩子们的客观概率谬误并不依赖于年龄或受到概率操纵的影响.
- 对10-11岁的孩子来说,客观和社会任务之间存在关联,但对较年轻的孩子来说却没有.
- "大声思考"程序减少了成年人的社会判断错误,但并没有减少客观判断错误.
结论:
- 成年人在客观和社会领域的结合谬误与情境因素有关并受到影响.
- 在结合错误的表现和相关性方面存在发育差异.
- 客观和社会判断错误背后的认知过程可能部分不同,并随着时间的推移而发展.
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