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由于气候变化造成的地表水短缺造成的跨境冲突
Ruijie Jiang1, Hui Lu2,3,4, Deliang Chen1,5
1Department of Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|September 1, 2025
概括
跨境河流流域面临水资源短缺的冲突. 一个新的框架预测了脆弱的盆地,表明积极的合作可以显著减少未来的风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 适应气候变化
- 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 跨境河流盆地 (TRB) 由于需求增加和气候变化,越来越容易受到水资源短缺引起的冲突的影响.
- 了解水资源短缺与TRB冲突之间的联系对于制定有效的减缓战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个新的框架来预测水资源短缺造成冲突的TRB.
- 评估未来几十年水资源短缺对全球TRB的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于水资源依赖的预测框架,由每月的水资源短缺来定义.
- 根据2005年至2014年的历史数据验证了框架.
主要成果:
- 这一框架成功解释了80%以上因水资源短缺而发生的冲突.
- 预测显示,如果不进行干预,到2041-2050年,将近40%的全球水资源贫困地区可能面临水资源短缺冲突.
- 非洲,亚洲,中东和北美地区是潜在冲突的热点.
结论:
- 需要紧急投资和利益相关方参与,以促进盆地内部合作.
- 积极的措施,特别是盆地内部的合作,可以将脆弱的TRB比例降至10%以下.
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