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Updated: Sep 9, 2025

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2020年至2100年共享社会经济路径的气候变化脆弱性预测
Janine Huisman1, Rosanne Martyr2,3, René Rott2
1Global Data Lab, Economics, Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Janine.huisman@ru.nl.
Scientific data
|September 1, 2025
概括
这项研究介绍了GVI预测数据库,提供了2020 - 2100年三种共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 的社会经济脆弱性预测. 这些预测使用GVL脆弱性指数 (GVI) 来评估全球社会的性.
科学领域:
- 气候变化适应和弹性研究
- 社会经济建模和预测
- 全球环境变化研究
背景情况:
- 社会面临气候变化,自然灾害和其他全球性冲击的日益脆弱性.
- 监测人类的脆弱因素对于有效的适应策略至关重要.
- 现有的指数可能无法全面捕捉社会经济脆弱性的多面性.
研究的目的:
- 提供全球社会经济脆弱性预测的GVI预测数据库.
- 将GVL脆弱性指数 (GVI) 扩展到未来的情景 (2020-2100年).
- 分析三个不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 的脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 使用GVL脆弱性指数 (GVI),这是一个基于七个社会经济层面的综合指数.
- 从共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 数据库推导5年间隔 (2020-2100年) 的指标预测.
- 根据SSP1,SSP2和SSP3情景计算国家和全球地区的未来GVI值.
主要成果:
- 全球经济预测数据库提供了2020年至2100年的全面社会经济脆弱性数据.
- 预测显示全球不同地区和SSP的脆弱性轨迹不同.
- GVI的增量公式允许在不同的地理和时间尺度上进行灵活计算.
结论:
- 该数据库是了解未来全球脆弱性的重要资源.
- 调查结果可以为不同的社会经济未来提供有针对性的适应和减缓策略.
- GVI框架为评估和预测社会脆弱性提供了一种强有力的方法.
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