传染病建模在疫情应对决策中的有用性:范围审查
Duaa Rao1,2, Aleena Tanveer1,2, Emil Nafis Iftekhar1
1Centre for International Health Protection, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
PLOS global public health
|September 2, 2025
概括
传染病模型对于疫情应对至关重要,但其实际影响需要更好的评估. 这一审查发现了主观的实用性评估,并强调合作是关键,数据质量和沟通是障碍.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策
- 数学模型
背景情况:
- 传染病建模对于在疫情爆发期间作出公共卫生决策至关重要.
- 关于这些模型对决策的实际有用性和影响仍存在争议.
- 缺乏全面的了解如何将建模见解转化为可行的政策.
研究的目的:
- 进行范围审查,确定将传染病建模见解转化为可行的政策的挑战和促进因素.
- 分析建模在政策和决策中的作用和实用性.
- 探索模拟在现实世界爆发场景中的实际应用.
主要方法:
- 从2019年1月开始,对Ovid数据库进行系统搜索,以评估其在政策和决策中的有用性.
- 包括通过专家判断确定的研究.
- 选择研究的描述性分析,在开放科学框架上进行注册.
主要成果:
- 包括33项研究,其中27项专注于COVID-19大流行,25项来自高收入国家.
- 没有研究提供对建模实用性的客观评估;评估是主观的.
- 主要促进者包括参与性利益相关者参与和跨部门合作.
- 这些障碍包括数据不一致,决策不协调,资金限制和不确定性误解.
结论:
- 虽然确定了决策建模的促进因素和障碍,但对建模实用性的严格客观评估存在重大差距.
- 未来的研究应该集中在系统评估传染病建模对公共卫生决策的影响上.
- 改善建模转化为政策需要解决数据质量问题,改善沟通,促进合作.
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