癌症差异:预测,COVID-19和基于情景的诊断延迟的影响
Ayse Arik1, Andrew J G Cairns2, George Streftaris2
1School of Risk and Actuarial Studies, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
PloS one
|September 2, 2025
概括
未来的癌症死亡率趋势显示出持续的差异,特别是贫困地区的肺癌. 诊断的延迟显著加重了结果,突显了减少癌症不平等的有针对性的干预措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
- 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 癌症风险的社会经济和区域差异已得到充分证实.
- 癌症死亡率差异的未来演变存在有限的研究.
- 乳腺癌 (BC) 和肺癌 (LC) 具有不同的社会经济模式和负担.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2036年乳腺癌和肺癌死亡率的未来趋势.
- 分析英格兰九个地区的富裕和贫困社区的发展趋势.
- 研究诊断延迟对未来癌症死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用国家统计局的癌症死亡记录 (2001-2018).
- 应用性别和特定原因的贝叶斯层次模型进行预测.
- 包括诊断时的年龄和非吸烟者的患病率作为风险因素.
主要成果:
- 预计肺癌死亡率的社会经济差异持续存在.
- 贫困地区和富裕地区的LC死亡率差异很大 (在伦敦高达60%).
- 预计LC诊断的延迟会导致北方和贫困地区的过度死亡率.
- 预计乳腺癌 (BC) 死亡率将整体下降,但在疫情期间80岁以上的女性中增加了10-13%.
结论:
- 预计如果没有针对性的干预措施, 癌症差异将继续存在.
- 癌症诊断的延迟显著影响死亡率并加剧不平等.
- 未来的研究应该模拟竞争的风险和个人层面的社会经济因素.
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