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在哈萨克斯坦使用2017-2024年监测数据进行马疹病毒1 (EHVs-1) 风险的空间建模

Yersyn Mukhanbetkaliyev¹, Gulzhan Yessembekova¹, Aizada Mukhanbetkaliyeva¹

¹S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.

Transboundary and emerging diseases

|September 2, 2025

概括

哈萨克斯坦的马体疹病毒1 (EHV-1) 疫情与1月风速和道路密度有关. 风险测绘确定了易受伤害的草原和草原地区,以加强EHV-1监测.

科学领域:

兽医病毒学
流行病学
环境科学

背景情况:

马性疹病毒1 (EHV-1) 在全球马养殖中造成重大经济损失,导致鼻肺炎,流产和骨髓脑病变.
2017年至2024年间,EHV-1在农场中持续感染,并在哈萨克斯坦记录了34起疫情.
识别风险因素对于控制EHV-1的传播和减轻其对马群的影响至关重要.

研究的目的:

确定与哈萨克斯坦的EHV-1存在相关的社会人口,环境和运输相关的风险因素.
制定风险地图,突出显示具有较高EHV-1出现适宜性的地区.
为加强对EHV-1的兽医监测和控制策略提供信息.

主要方法:

使用基于森林的分类和回归方法来分析行政区域级别的EHV-1存在/不存在.
纳入全国范围的马种养殖场调查,以获得马种群密度数据.
检查的因素包括平均风速,道路密度,马场数量和牲畜监测设施.

主要成果:

1月份的平均风速是EHV-1存在的最重要的预测因素.
道路密度,马场数量和牲畜监测设施也与EHV-1发生相关.
马种群密度在预测模型中被发现是一个不那么重要的变量.

结论:

风速等环境因素和道路密度等基础设施是哈萨克斯坦EHV-1传播的关键因素.
风险绘制表明北部,中部和西南部地区,特别是那些草原/草原景观地区,非常适合EHV-1的出现.
调查结果支持针对特定风险因素和地理区域的有针对性的监测和控制措施.

关键词:

美国马类疹病毒哈萨克斯坦基于森林的回归马种养殖风险映射适合性

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