建筑与人口增长之间的不匹配:对1700个城市的全球研究
Siwei Lou1, Yu Huang1, Yukai Zou2
1School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Guangzhou University, 230 Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center West Outer Ring Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 510006, China.
iScience
|September 2, 2025
概括
城市建筑的扩张在全球范围内有所不同,东亚的建筑超过了人口增长,欧洲/北美的建筑较少. 社会经济因素影响了这些可持续发展趋势.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和可持续发展
- 城市增长的地理空间分析
- 环境科学与资源管理
背景情况:
- 城市建筑扩张与人口增长之间的关系对于可持续发展至关重要.
- 城市发展差异的全球模式和驱动因素尚未得到充分理解.
- 了解这些动态是解决城市可持续性挑战的关键.
研究的目的:
- 调查2000年至2020年12个主要经济体的1,744个城市的建筑量和人口增长率之间的差异.
- 确定城市发展的区域模式及其与人口动态的相关性.
- 探索城市扩张趋势背后的社会经济驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 使用基于卫星的建筑体积数据和人口数据库进行全面分析.
- 计算了每个城市的建筑量与人口增长率 (ΔR) 之间的差异.
- 使用统计方法分析区域差异和社会经济影响因素.
主要成果:
- 城市发展的区域差异显著:东亚和东南亚城市的建设速度超过人口增长.
- 许多欧洲和北美城市展现了保守的建筑发展, ΔR 接近或低于零.
- 国内生产总值,人口规模和经济中心的接近等社会经济因素显著解释了这些模式,特别是在全球南方.
结论:
- 城市建筑的扩张并不完全跟随全球人口的增长,因此需要量身定制的方法.
- 具体区域战略对于实现可持续城市发展至关重要.
- 解决社会经济因素对于管理城市增长和确保可持续性至关重要.
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