人类乳头瘤病毒模型与疫苗接种和个体异质性的分析
Jing An1,2,3, Wenhui Hao1,2,3, Huifen Guo4
1Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030006, China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|September 2, 2025
概括
这项研究模拟了人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 传播动态. 针对16至45岁成年人的疫苗接种策略比针对青少年的疫苗更有效.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 数学生物学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 构成了全球重大健康挑战.
- 了解HPV传播动态对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个模拟HPV传播的动态系统,包括年龄分组和传播途径.
- 分析疫苗对无疾病平衡和持续性的影响.
- 使用数学建模和控制理论来确定HPV控制的最佳疫苗接种策略.
主要方法:
- 开发一种HPV的动态传播系统.
- 基本复制数的计算 (R 0).
- 使用最小平方方法与中国的性病监测数据进行参数估计.
- 应用最佳控制理论和庞特里亚金的最大原则.
主要成果:
- 当 R 0 < 1 时,无疾病平衡是稳定的;当 R 0 > 1 时,疾病持续存在.
- 参数估计提供了有关中国HPV传播的见解.
- 最佳对照分析发现,对16至45岁个体的疫苗接种比对9至15岁个体的疫苗接种更有益.
- 发现低成本的控制策略更有利.
结论:
- 数学模型为了解和控制HPV传播提供了有价值的工具.
- 针对老年人 (16至45岁) 的向接种疫苗可能是对HPV更有效的公共卫生干预措施.
- 可持续的HPV预防计划需要具有成本效益的控制策略.
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