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基于千年记录的中国冰风的气候影响和未来趋势
Qinghong Zhang1, Rumeng Li2,3, Wenhong Li4
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China. qzhang@pku.edu.cn.
Nature communications
|September 2, 2025
概括
中国的冰风频率一直保持稳定,直到1850年,然后与气温上升和太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 相关. 未来的气候变化可能会进一步增加冰天数.
科学领域:
- 气候学
- 历史气象学
- 古气候学
背景情况:
- 长期,一致的冰风数据很少,阻碍了气候变化影响评估.
- 历史记录提供了一个重建过去冰活动的潜在途径.
研究的目的:
- 重建和分析中国的长期冰风趋势.
- 研究冰风频率,气候变暖和自然气候变化之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 利用中国历史书中的冰损害记录来延长冰风暴记录超过2890年.
- 分析了1500年至1949年间冰天的变化,并考虑了人口的影响.
- 使用统计分析和卷积神经网络模型进行趋势分析和未来预测.
主要成果:
- 在1850年之前,冰风的频率是不变的,之后显著增加.
- 1850年后冰暴的增加与表面温度的上升有关,独立于人口变化.
- 观察到冰活动的近百年和多十年变化,受太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 的影响.
结论:
- 中国的长期冰风趋势受到人为气候变暖和自然变化 (PDO) 的影响.
- 未来的气候变化场景预测,在整个21世纪,冰天数将持续增加.
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