基于机器学习的风速不确定性的概率预测,使用自适应的核密度估计
1College of Engineering and Technology, American University of the Middle East, Kuwait.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|September 3, 2025
概括
准确的短期风速预测对于可再生能源至关重要. 这项研究引入了一种混合支持向量回归与自适应核密度估计 (SVR-AKDE) 模型,用于精确的预测间隔,提高风能可靠性.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统
- 机器学习应用
- 统计预测
背景情况:
- 短期风速预测对于高效的风能整合至关重要.
- 传统的点预测在捕捉风速的不确定性方面缺乏准确性.
- 量化预测的不确定性对于可靠的风能运营至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为短期风速预测间隔开发混合预测方法.
- 使用支持向量回归 (SVR) 和自适应内核密度估计 (AKDE) 来量化预测的不确定性.
- 评估建议的SVR-AKDE模型与用于改进不确定性估计的传统方法相比.
主要方法:
- 结合支持向量回归 (SVR) 和自适应内核密度估计 (AKDE) 的混合模型被开发出来.
- 使用适应式 KDE 来根据本地预测错误分布调整带宽,以精确量化不确定性.
- 对SVR-AKDE模型进行了短期评估 (10,30,60,120分钟).
主要成果:
- 在估计风速预测间隔方面,SVR-AKDE模型表现出卓越的性能.
- 提出的方法始终提供了增强的预测区间覆盖概率 (PICP) 和更窄的预测区间正常化平均宽度 (PINAW).
- 模拟结果证实了SVR-AKDE与传统的KDE间隔估计的有效性.
结论:
- SVR-AKDE混合模型为短期风速预测提供了可量化的解决方案.
- 这种方法提高了风能设施的可靠性和操作控制.
- 精确的不确定性量化是最大限度地发挥风能发电潜力的关键.
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