评估气候驱动物种迁移对生物质估计方法的影响的空间建模方法
Benjamin A Levy1,2, Christopher M Legault3, Timothy J Miller3
1Ocean Associates Inc. in support of National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, VA 22207, USA.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|September 3, 2025
概括
气候变化影响了海洋物种的分布,可能会影响渔业种群的评估. 这项研究引入了一个空间建模框架,以考虑气候驱动的运动,并提高生物质估计的准确性.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态
- 渔业科学
- 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 渔业种群评估依赖于采样生物质估计,假设物种分布稳定.
- 气候变化正在改变海洋物种的空间分布,
- 现有的方法可能无法完全解释气候驱动的生物质变化.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个空间明确的,数据驱动的数学建模框架.
- 纳入驱动物种移动的环境变量 (例如水温).
- 评估气候驱动的分布转移对渔业生物质估计的影响.
主要方法:
- 由环境变量驱动的空间显式建模框架.
- 在不同的温度和种群场景下模拟了三种大西洋鱼类.
- 使用传统分层采样和基于时空模型的方法进行计算的生物质估计.
主要成果:
- 模型框架成功地将气候驱动的生物质分布变化纳入其中.
- 生物质估计受到物种随着时间的推移而改变的空间密度的影响.
- 使用环境共变量的时空模型提供了更强大的估计方法.
结论:
- 气候驱动的物种迁移挑战了传统的渔业评估假设.
- 开发的框架可以识别和量化气候诱导的生物质估计偏差.
- 这种方法对于评估调查设计和为适应气候的渔业管理提供信息非常有价值.
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