气候变化通过气温和供水变化增加了全球夏季作物产量的跨年差异
Jonathan Proctor1, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello2, Duo Chan3
1Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V67 1Z4, Canada.
Science advances
|September 3, 2025
概括
气候变化增加了作物产量差异,影响了粮食安全. 随着气温的上升和土壤水分的变化,全球玉米,大豆和的产量逐年大幅上升.
科学领域:
- 农业科学
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 农业生产率每年变化对于全球粮食安全至关重要.
- 之前的研究集中在气候变暖对产量波动的影响上,
- 气候变化对土壤温度和湿度都有重大影响,
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内量化气候变化对玉米,大豆和产量差异的影响.
- 为了区分温度和土壤湿度变化对产量变异的贡献.
- 调查温度和土壤湿度对作物生产的压力之间的共变.
主要方法:
- 使用经验作物模型与合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 气候模拟集成.
- 使用简单的土地表面模型来证实CMIP6模拟的结果.
- 分析了因温度和土壤湿度变化而导致的年间产量变化.
主要成果:
- 预计气候变化将使主要作物间的年间天气引起的产量变化增加 [公式:见文本].
- 这种增长是由温度应力变异的增加和温度和土壤湿度应力之间的共变性增加所驱动的.
- 温暖的空气加快了土壤的干燥, 干燥的土壤加剧了变暖,
结论:
- 气候变化加剧了玉米,大豆和等关键作物的产量变化.
- 气温上升和土壤湿度变化之间的相互作用是这种波动增加的关键因素.
- 了解这些由气候驱动的产量差异对于适应农业实践和确保未来的粮食安全至关重要.
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