了解西班牙中风死亡率趋势:综合年龄期和结合点分析
L Cayuela1, E Zapata-Arriaza2, A de Albóniga-Chindurza2
1Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Severo Ochoa, Leganés, Spain.
Neurologia
|September 3, 2025
概括
由于期间和队列效应,西班牙中风死亡率在1982-2021年间下降. 然而,最近的趋势显示,这一下降趋势正在放缓,
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
- 老年学
背景情况:
- 1982年至2021年的西班牙中风死亡率趋势.
- 对中风死亡率的年龄期对象 (A-P-C) 影响的分析.
研究的目的:
- 更新和评估A-P-C对西班牙中风死亡率的影响.
- 确定中风死亡率的趋势和影响因素.
主要方法:
- 利用国家统计局的数据 (1982-2021年) 来查看中风死亡率和人口统计数据.
- 使用Joinpoint趋势分析软件进行利率估计和趋势分析.
- 应用了具有概率惩罚函数的日志线性Poisson模型来估计APC效应.
主要成果:
- 年龄标准化中风死亡率在男女中均有所下降 (-4.3%男性, -4.6%女性).
- 近年来,这一下降速度有所放缓,自2012年以来,30-64岁女性的比例稳定下来.
- 尽管在1947年至1962年出生的女性中,这一下降趋势有所减缓,但在过去十年中,这两种情况均趋于稳定或减缓.
结论:
- 期间和队列效应显著影响了西班牙中风死亡率的下降.
- 死亡率下降可能无法抵消年轻群体的潜在发病率上升,导致死亡率下降或停滞.
- 鉴于目前的趋势, 继续关注中风预防至关重要.
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