1990-2023年全球甲足迹的增长和驱动因素
Yuli Shan1,2, Kailan Tian3,4, Ruoqi Li5,6
1School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK. y.shan@bham.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|September 3, 2025
概括
全球甲排放量正在上升, 虽然一些发达国家实现了脱,但贸易模式的转变和需求结构的变化导致了排放,需要更新的气候战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候变化研究
- 经济分析
背景情况:
- 在推动气候变化方面仅次于二氧化碳.
- 全球努力减少甲排放正在进行中,但了解排放趋势和驱动因素仍然不完整,特别是在基于消费的角度.
- 基于消费的排放占全球供应链中的所有排放.
研究的目的:
- 调查164个国家和120个行业的生产和消费的近期甲排放动态.
- 分析甲排放与经济增长的脱关系.
- 确定全球甲排放变化的关键驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 对164个国家 (1990-2023) 基于生产和消费的甲排放数据进行分析.
- 调查120个部门的甲排放趋势.
- 研究经济增长与甲排放之间的关系 (脱分析).
- 通过间隔分析确定排放驱动因素 (1998-2023年).
主要成果:
- 全球甲排放没有减缓的迹象.
- 只有少数发达国家实现了强有力的脱 (在经济增长的同时减少排放).
- 全球贸易对甲排放做出了重大贡献,南南贸易的转变显著.
- 降低排放系数 (由于效率和技术) 是减少排放的关键,但最终需求的增加和需求的结构变化 (自2008年以来) 导致排放增加.
结论:
- 目前的趋势表明全球甲排放量持续增长.
- 有效减缓气候变化需要全面了解基于消费的排放和贸易动态.
- 政策干预必须解决生产效率和需求方面的因素,以有效制甲排放.
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