一个数据驱动的季节性克隆病的数学模型
Wei Wang1, Xiaohui Huang1, Tonghua Zhang2
1College of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China.
Bulletin of mathematical biology
|September 3, 2025
概括
这是一种食物寄生病, 一个数学模型显示,如果不加强控制措施,中国广西的基本繁殖数量为1.025,表明感染负担很高.
科学领域:
- 寄生虫学
- 数学生物学
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 克隆是一种由Clonorchis sinensis引起的食源寄生病,影响人肝胆道.
- 寄生虫阶段呈现季节性变化,可能受到水温等环境因素的影响.
- 了解传播动态对于有效控制疾病至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数学模型的克隆病传染.
- 将季节性,空间异质性和外部化期 (EIP) 纳入模型.
- 分析模型的全球动态并估计关键的流行病学参数.
主要方法:
- 一个部分微分方程 (PDE) 模型的制定.
- 包括季节性变化和空间异质性.
- 基本复制数 (R0) 的计算和全球动态的分析.
主要成果:
- 中国广西的基本生殖数 (R0) 估计为1.025.
- 该模型表明克隆病感染的现有负担很大.
- 季节性变化和空间因素影响了寄生虫的传播动态.
结论:
- 估计的R0表明在研究区域中正在进行的Clonorchiasis传播.
- 需要持续或加强预防和控制措施来减少感染负担.
- 数学模型提供了关于克隆病传播的复杂动态的见解.
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