PEST++IES 有多少个代和实现,找到减少回报的点
Trent J Farnum, Andrew T Leaf1, Michael N Fienen1
1U.S. Geologic Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, Madison, WI.
Ground water
|September 4, 2025
概括
对于地下水建模,PEST++IES (通过顺序测试进行人口估计) 需要最佳的组合大小. 一般来说,100-250个实现和两个代足以准确地匹配历史和不确定性分析.
科学领域:
- 地下水的水文
- 计算机建模
- 地理统计学
背景情况:
- PEST++IES是用于地下水模型校准和不确定性分析的流行的工具.
- 对于高度参数化的模型来说,它的整体流方法是有效的.
- 确定组合实现和代的最佳数量对于效率至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查PEST++IES的集体实现和代的最佳数量.
- 评估组件大小对地下水模型性能的影响.
- 评估计算成本与历史匹配的准确性之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 一个修改后的弗雷伯格模型被用于模拟.
- 进行了四次代,组合大小从10到2000不等.
- 调整了水电导电,充电,河流导电率和井流量.
- 结果与基于风险的采集区和液压导电场的"真实"模型进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 总体来说,100到250个作品的集体大小产生了良好的结果.
- 对于大多数场景来说,两个PEST++IES代被认为是足够的.
- 较小的组合尺寸 (例如10-50) 显示性能下降.
- 较大的组合尺寸 (例如,500) 提供了最小的额外改进.
结论:
- 100-250个实现和两个代的集体大小代表了PEST++IES的高效和有效配置.
- 这一发现有助于优化地下水建模的计算资源.
- 该研究为PEST++IES的用户提供了用于历史匹配和不确定性分析的实用指南.
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