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英国前所未有的热浪对燃料湿度产生了极端温和的野火风险
Katy Ivison1, Kerryn Little1, Alice Orpin1
1School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
概括
气候变化引发的极端热浪增加了欧洲温带地区的野火风险. 燃料的水分含量通常由不同的因素控制,在2022年的热浪中变得均,预示着未来的野火威胁.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候变化研究
- 野火的生态
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了极端天气,导致更频繁和更严重的热浪.
- 温带欧洲的灌木景观越来越受到野火的影响,燃料的水分含量是一个关键因素.
- 了解燃料的湿度如何变化和对极端热量的反应对于火灾管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究活和死 (Calluna vulgaris) 和有机土壤中燃料水分的控制.
- 评估这些控制在极端热浪事件中如何变化.
- 预测未来热浪对温带地区野火风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 在英国进行了为期3年的现场测量,测量了活和死以及有机土壤的湿度.
- 在2022年7月热浪期间进行密集采样.
- 分析了燃料湿度,现象,天气和景观变量之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 活燃料的湿度与现象学相关,死燃料与天气相关,有机土壤与景观变量相关.
- 在2022年的热浪中,气候变量单独控制了所有燃料类型的湿度.
- 这导致所有燃料类型的同步极端干燥, 偏离季节性规范.
结论:
- 未来强烈的夏季热浪可能会使温带地区的不同燃料类型出现极端干旱.
- 这种同步会增加野火的点燃,蔓延和影响, 即使在传统上不易发生火灾的地区.
- 温带地带可能会因燃料湿度不足而变得越来越容易受到极端野火事件的影响.
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