人口老龄化所造成的预计癌症负担:快速老龄化社会的洞察力
Minh-Thao Tu1, Hoejun Kwon1, Yoon-Jung Choi1,2,3
1Department of Public Health and AI, National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, Goyang, Republic of Korea.
International journal of cancer
|September 4, 2025
概括
由于人口老龄化, 韩国的癌症负担将会增加, 新出现的挑战包括结肠直肠癌,前列腺癌和乳腺癌,需要新的控制策略.
科学领域:
- 癌症学
- 老年学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化对全球和韩国的癌症控制构成越来越大的挑战.
- 对于有效的公共卫生规划,量化与衰老相关的癌症负担至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测和说明韩国人口老龄化带来的未来癌症负担.
- 用年龄周期队列 (APC) 模型和人口可归因分数 (PAF) 概念来预测未来的癌症情况.
主要方法:
- 从以人口为基础的注册表中提取老化敏感癌症的发病率和死亡率数据.
- 使用APC模型预测到2046年因衰老而导致的癌症病例和死亡.
- 针对发病率和死亡率计算的衰老可归因分数 (PAF).
主要成果:
- 预计肺癌仍然是与衰老相关的首要癌症负担.
- 胃癌和肝癌的负担将转移到老年人群, 增加PAF的发生率.
- 大肠癌,前列腺癌和乳腺癌显示出新出现的负担,特别是在老年人中.
结论:
- 未来的癌症控制必须解决老龄化人口的持续和新出现的负担.
- 针对中年成人进行向癌症预防和专业护理对于脆弱的老年患者至关重要.
- 需要采取积极的策略来缓解超年龄社会预测的癌症趋势.
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