中国流行性日本脑炎的流行病学特征和传播动态:一项建模研究
Xiaoyan Cai1, Xu Wang1, Haobo Ni2
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou 515041, China.
The Journal of infection
|September 4, 2025
概括
日本脑炎病毒 (JEV) 流行在中国南部较早,在中国北部较晚. 人口流动推动了日本脑炎的传播,强调了消除日本脑炎 (JE) 的有针对性的干预措施的需要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 病毒学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 由日本脑炎病毒 (JEV) 引起的日本脑炎 (JE) 季节性流行病在中国农村和郊区普遍存在.
- 了解JEV的时空动态和传播模式对于有效的控制和消除策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析日本脑炎 (JE) 疫情的季节性模式和地理变化.
- 研究人口流动在日本脑炎病毒 (JEV) 传播动态中的作用.
- 估计关键的传播参数,并确定JEV的高危区域.
主要方法:
- 采用了2013年至2019年的全国9061例JE病例,蚊子数量和城市间人口流动数据.
- 使用季节性多变量线性回归模型分析每周的JE案例时间序列并估计周期幅度和峰值时间.
- 使用贝叶斯推理开发了一个超人口网络模型,以模拟JEV流行动态和估计时间变化的传播参数.
主要成果:
- 每年的JEV流行病峰值显示出显著的度变化,较早发生在南部城市,较晚发生在北部城市.
- 实际繁殖数量较高的地区 (Reff) 集中在中国中部,通常在8月达到峰值.
- 人口流动促使JEV从主要枢纽城市扩散到周边地区.
结论:
- 地理位置极大地影响了JEV疫情的发生时间,需要针对地理位置的监测和干预策略.
- 人口流动是JEV传播的一个关键因素,强调在控制工作中考虑流动模式的重要性.
- 这些发现有助于更好地了解JE的传播,并支持在中国开发针对性干预措施.
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