评价大城市对流行病的抵御力:中国的案例
Yaru Cheng1, Hongyun Si2, Zhikang Bao3
1School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 4, 2025
概括
大城市需要更好的抗疫能力. 上海改善最多,而深落后,凸显了综合城市系统在疫情防控方面的重要性.
科学领域:
- 城市规划与公共卫生
- 复原力科学
- 社会生态系统分析
背景情况:
- 由于复杂的系统和人口密度, 大型城市面临着更大的健康危机.
- 现有的城市弹性模型需要针对流行病特定的挑战进行改进.
- 对量身定制的弹性评估框架的研究对于大城市的疫情准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为面对疫情的大城市提供量身定制的抗灾能力评估框架.
- 通过改进的框架评估8个中国大城市的抗疫能力.
- 确定影响城市抗疫能力的关键因素,并提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 提升了泰勒和莫恩奇的城市性模型.
- 通过与理想解决方案相似的顺序偏好的灰色相关技术 (TOPSIS) 方法.
- 在中国八个大城市 (2014-2021) 应用了障碍诊断模型.
主要成果:
- 所有城市的抗疫能力得分都呈现波动性增长,其中上海的改善率最为显著 (23.13%).
- 上海在2017年,2020年和2021年实现了最佳的维度集成,而深的集成程度最低 (2016-2021年).
- 人口规模,城市规模,资源分配效率和流动性模式被确定为主要的性约束因素.
结论:
- 维度平衡对于整体城市的抗疫能力至关重要.
- 这些发现为大城市发展策略提供了信息,以加强对疫情的应对.
- 提供了政策建议,以加强人口密集的城市环境的性.
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