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Updated: Sep 9, 2025

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估计早期与晚期癌症的致癌时间表以及出生队列中的变化
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|September 5, 2025
概括
乳腺癌,结肠直肠癌和甲状腺癌的关键突变发生在生命早期. 在早期发病病例和较新的出生群体中,癌症的进展速度更快,这为癌症预防策略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 癌症学
- 数学生物学
- 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 了解突变事件的时间对于癌症预防和检测至关重要,尤其是早期癌症.
- 在癌症发展过程中,很难直接观察到人类的中间突变事件.
研究的目的:
- 使用瘤动态模型估计乳腺,结直肠和甲状腺癌中介突变事件的时间.
- 分析早期和晚期病例之间以及出生队列之间的致癌时间表的差异.
主要方法:
- 开发并扩展瘤运动模型,使用普通微分方程来描述致癌阶段.
- 使用长期癌症注册数据,发病率和瘤大小数据以适应模型参数.
- 应用基于卷积的方法来推导概率分布,并计算突变过渡的预期年龄.
主要成果:
- 估计乳腺癌,结肠直肠癌和甲状腺癌的初始突变发生在生命早期.
- 乳腺癌和结肠直肠癌的恶性转变在早期发病 (30多岁后期) 与晚期发病 (40多岁后期至50多岁初) 的病例相比较快.
- 甲状腺癌的早期恶性转变时间表 (20 岁后期) 对于早期和晚期发病的病例都相似.
- 由于晚期转变的进展速度更快,最近的出生队列表现出向早期恶性转变的转变.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了第一个直接的,对生命过程中的关键突变过渡时间的具体估计.
- 研究结果表明,早期和晚期癌症之间的致癌时间表和出生队列之间的时间变化不同.
- 这些结果可以为早期癌症病因研究和针对性干预策略的制定提供信息.
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