宿主迁移对病媒传播的流行程度的影响
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH, 44115, USA. d.gao51@csuohio.edu.
Journal of mathematical biology
|September 5, 2025
概括
宿主迁移显著影响病媒传播. 宿主和载体分布不均会影响疾病的持续性和患病率,观察到宿主患病率较低但载体患病率较高.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 数学生物学
- 生态学
背景情况:
- 人类的移动是传染病在全球传播的关键因素.
- 现有的空间模型主要关注疾病动态,不太关注迁移的影响.
研究的目的:
- 通过多补丁罗斯-麦克唐纳模型研究宿主迁移对本地和全球疾病流行的影响.
- 分析宿主分散如何影响不同空间配置中的疾病动态.
主要方法:
- 开发和分析包含宿主迁移的多补丁罗斯-麦克唐纳模型.
- 在零和无限分散率下推导全球疾病患病率公式.
- 两个补丁场景的模型参数空间的分类,以评估分散效应.
主要成果:
- 局部疾病患病率受限于脱节斑块的最小和最大患病率,其保持秩序的特性较弱.
- 在极端的分散率下得出全球患病率公式,并进行了比较.
- 数字模拟显示疾病持久性,宿主患病率和媒介患病率之间存在不一致.
结论:
- 宿主迁移模式对传染病的空间分布和整体负担产生重大影响.
- 主体和媒介分布的环境异质性可能导致复杂的流行病学结果,不同影响疾病的持续性和流行率.
- 这项研究强调了在流行病学模型中考虑宿主移动对于有效的疾病控制策略的重要性.
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