果树叶采矿者,Phyllonorycter ringoniella (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) 的温度依赖的种群模型
Shubao Geng1, Lei Chen1, Heli Hou2
1School of Agricultural Sciences, Xinyang Agriculture and Forestry University, Xinyang, China.
Archives of insect biochemistry and physiology
|September 8, 2025
概括
一个新的模型预测了亚洲果叶矿工 (Phyllonorycter ringoniella) 种群,估计每年有五代. 该工具有助于了解害虫动态,并优化果园的农药应用时间.
科学领域:
- 昆虫学 昆虫学是一门学科.
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
背景情况:
- 亚洲果叶矿工Phyllonorycter ringoniella是东北亚果园的关键害虫.
- 了解其种群动态对于有效的害虫控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个温度依赖的群体模型,用于Phyllonorycter ringoniella.
- 在各种害虫控制场景下模拟种群动态.
主要方法:
- 构建了一个人口模型,其中包括春季出现,不成熟发育和成年卵置的子模型.
- 来自韩国果园 (2015-2016) 的性费洛蒙陷的现场数据被用于模型验证.
- 模拟包括农药和自然敌人的加权死亡因子.
主要成果:
- 该模型准确地预测了P. ringoniella的几代,通常是每年五代,峰值时间在现场数据的7天范围内.
- 模拟表明,结合农药和自然敌人的死亡率因素可以改善人口规模预测.
- 敏感性分析显示,总生育率和幼虫阶段影响了种群大小,而高峰时间对参数变化具有强大影响.
- 较高的温度与较早的成年人峰值日期相关,特别是在夏季世代.
结论:
- 开发的模型为估计P. ringoniella种群动态和丰度提供了一个基本工具.
- 该模型可以指导战略农药应用时间,以提高果园的害虫控制效率.
- 建议进行进一步的验证,以确认该模型在现实世界果园害虫管理中的有效性.
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