了解尼泊尔国王蛇的适合息地和人类造成的死亡风险
Rishi Baral1,2,3, Binaya Adhikari4, Abhisek Sapkota2,5
1Laboratory of Wildlife Biology and Medicine, Department of Environmental Veterinary Science, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine Hokkaido University Sapporo Japan.
Ecology and evolution
|September 8, 2025
概括
尼泊尔的国王蛇息地因气候变化而减少,预计到2050年将大幅减少. 迫切需要进行保护,特别是在保护区之外,以保护这种脆弱的物种.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 王蛇 (Ophiophagus hannah) 是世界上最长的毒蛇,是面临息地挑战的脆弱物种.
- 它的分布在尼泊尔正在扩大,需要了解其当前和未来的息地适应性.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟尼泊尔国王蛇目前适合气候的息地.
- 预测2050年和2070年的SSP2-4.5气候变化情景下国王蛇息地的未来变化.
- 确定尼泊尔国王蛇的关键区域和保护需求.
主要方法:
- 利用了553个国王蛇的发生记录.
- 使用BIOMOD2与气候和地形变量开发了一个集体息地适应性模型.
- 分析了SSP2-4.5情景下的气候变化预测和94个死亡记录.
主要成果:
- 在尼泊尔确定了23702.62平方公里的合适的国王蛇息地.
- 预计到2050年适合息地将减少22%,在SSP2-4.5.5下到2070年将减少9%.
- 发现60%的适合息地位于保护区之外,巴格马蒂和甘达基省是关键地区.
- 在最热季度的降雨量显著影响了息地分布.
- 确定东部低地和中山地区作为临界死亡热点.
结论:
- 尼泊尔的国王蛇息地面临着气候变化带来的重大威胁,预计会大幅减少.
- 保护战略必须超越保护区,以解决大多数适合息地的问题.
- 在已识别的高风险区域,紧急的,有重点的保护举措至关重要,以保护脆弱的金蛇种群.
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