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一个框架来估计威的价值
Richard S John1, Robin Dillon2, William Burns3
1University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
本研究引入了一个框架,以量化对适应性对手的安全对策的威价值. 它将对抗措施的效用分为减少威胁,减少脆弱性和减轻后果,以便更好地进行利益成本分析.
科学领域:
- 决策分析 决策分析
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 安全研究 安全研究
背景情况:
- 评估安全对策的有效性是复杂的,特别是对抗适应性对手.
- 现有的效益成本分析往往难以量化威的价值.
- 适应性对手对传统的安全模型构成独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 制定一个框架来计算安全反制措施所提供的威价值.
- 将对策的实用性分为不同的组成部分:威胁降低,脆弱性降低和后果减轻.
- 提供一种将威价值纳入效益成本分析的方法.
主要方法:
- 防御者-攻击者决策树的调整.
- 应用决策分析原则来计算不完善控制的预期效用 (EUIC).
- 使用减法逻辑,将EUIC分为来自威胁减少,脆弱性减少和后果减轻的独特贡献.
主要成果:
- 该框架成功地将反制措施的实用性分为三个关键组成部分.
- 不完善控制的预期效用 (EUIC) 量化了实施对策的净收益.
- 在机场安全背景下证明了威价值框架的应用.
结论:
- 拟议的框架提供了一个强大的方法论,用于在安全效益成本分析中明确考虑威.
- 这种方法可以更全面地评估对抗适应性威胁的反制措施的有效性.
- 量化威价值有助于优化安全投资和资源分配.
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