相关实验视频
Updated: Jan 18, 2026

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Measuring Delay Discounting in Humans Using an Adjusting Amount Task
Published on: January 9, 2016
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在风险和延迟之间进行权衡的折扣框架
Yu-Hua Yeh1, Leonard Green2, Joel Myerson2
1Illinois College, IL, USA.
Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior
|September 8, 2025
概括
人们往往会把拖延的回报换成可能的回报. 这项研究表明,修改后的超波罗形模型准确地描述了这个复杂的决策过程,整合了风险和延迟.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 人类决策经常涉及奖励延迟和概率之间的权衡.
- 了解这些权衡对于建模选择行为至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 扩展一般的折扣框架,分析奖励延迟和概率之间的基本权衡.
- 为了研究超波形函数在描述这种风险延迟权衡中的适用性.
主要方法:
- 43名本科生调整了即时奖励的概率,以匹配某种延迟奖励.
- 使用了200美元和1万美元的货币奖励值,延迟时间从1个月到25年.
- 通过使用超波罗函数和修改后的折扣模型来分析数据.
主要成果:
- 复制了对主观概率值的日志 (延迟) 和日志 (赔率) 之间的线性关系的先前发现.
- 证明了一个修改过的超波罗的贴现模型准确地描述了风险和延迟之间的权衡 (R2 = .99).
结论:
- 折扣框架有效地捕捉了涉及风险和延迟的人类决策的复杂性.
- 修改后的超波形模型提供了对这种基本的权衡过程的强有力的数学描述.
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