G20中风负担1990-2035年:趋势,预测和精确的健康见解
Rongrong Chen1, Xiangwen Li1, Ruonan Zhao1
1School of Public Health, Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine, Shaanxi, 712046, Xianyang, P. R. China.
脑卒中仍然是全球主要的健康威胁,导致严重的死亡率和残疾. 尽管率下降,但差异仍然存在,人口老龄化将增加绝对负担,需要有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 脑卒中是全球死亡和残疾的第二大原因.
- 分析G20国家使用全球疾病负担 (GBD) 2021年数据从1990-2021年提供了新的见解.
- 了解中风负担和趋势对于全球卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析G20国家中风死亡率,发病率,流行率和失去了生命年 (YLLs).
- 确定中风的关键风险因素和流行病学驱动因素.
- 评估社会经济差异,并预测未来的中风趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用的全球疾病负担 (GBD) 2021年数据 (1990-2021) 对于G20国家.
- 针对死亡率,发病率,流行率和年轻人死亡率计算的年龄标准化率 (ASR).
- 采用可归因风险因子分析,分解分析,不平等分析和贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 建模,用于到2035年的预测.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,中风占G20国家死亡人数的11.83%,在中国和印度尼西亚领先.
- 高静脉压和空气污染被确定为主要的危险因素.
- 预测表明,中国老龄化人口 (≥75岁) 的患病率正在上升,印度尼西亚的患病率正在迅速下降.
结论:
- 自1990年以来,中风年龄标准化率 (ASR) 已经下降,但与社会经济发展相关的跨国显著差异仍然存在.
- 由于人口老龄化,预计中风的绝对负担将增加.
- 针对高血压,空气污染和老年人医疗的有针对性的干预措施是必不可少的.
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