通过生存和离散选择分析在FIFO车道中建模出租车停车决策
Fangyi Yang1,2,3
1College of Intelligent Science and Control Engineering, Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing, China.
PloS one
|September 8, 2025
概括
这项研究模拟了在拥挤的枢纽中出租车下车决策,揭示了司机的耐心显著影响了选择. 实施交通管理策略可以通过考虑驾驶者心理和沉没成本效应来提高效率.
科学领域:
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 交通工程是交通工程.
背景情况:
- 乘客枢纽下降区的交通拥堵阻碍了有效的车道利用.
- 了解这些区域的驾驶员决策对于优化交通流动至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在拥挤的第一入先出 (FIFO) 车道中制定出租车停车场的决策模型.
- 分析影响驾驶员耐心和下车行为的因素,包括沉没成本效应.
主要方法:
- 使用静态和动态Logit框架进行面板数据分析.
- 整合了生存分析,特别是Cox比例危险模型,以研究乘客的耐心.
- 开发了一种混合分布模型,用经验数据对乘客耐心进行校准.
主要成果:
- 发现乘客的耐心显著影响出租车下车决策.
- 模型实现了超过70%的预测准确度,动态模型在有足够数据的情况下表现最好.
- 延长停车时间和旅行时间与降低危险率相关,证实了驾驶员行为的沉没成本效应.
结论:
- 司机的心理行为,如沉没成本效应,必须整合到交通管理策略中.
- 建议包括实施不等待区,强制性下降时间门和动态定价.
- 优化掉落区需要解决驾驶员的耐心和操作限制,以提高效率.
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