结束瑞安·怀特艾滋病毒/艾滋病计划对艾滋病毒发病率的潜在影响:美国31个城市的模拟研究
Ryan Forster1, Melissa Schnure2, Joyce Jones2
1Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland (R.F., C.L., K.N.A., D.W.D., P.K.).
Annals of internal medicine
|September 8, 2025
概括
到2030年,终止瑞安·怀特的服务可能会导致近7.5万例新的艾滋病毒感染. 扰乱对艾滋病毒感染者的护理增加了传播,强调了该计划在公共卫生中的重要作用.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 抗逆转录病毒疗法可以使人寿命正常,并防止艾滋病毒的传播.
- 瑞安·怀特艾滋病毒/艾滋病计划至关重要,为超过一半的美国艾滋病毒感染者提供服务.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计由瑞安·怀特服务的停止或中断导致的潜在新的艾滋病毒感染.
- 量化服务中断对艾滋病毒传播动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 为模拟流行病,开发了一种隔间艾滋病毒传播模型.
- 模型参数使用CDC监测数据和瑞安·怀特计划报告进行校准.
- 对临床工作人员的调查估计,在服务停止后病毒抑制损失.
主要成果:
- 到2025年7月停止瑞安·怀特服务可能导致到2030年估计有75,436例HIV感染过多 (49%的增长).
- 18个月和42个月的服务中断可能导致分别增加19%和38%的感染.
- 预计艾滋病毒发病率的增加因城市而异,从9%到110%.
结论:
- 破坏瑞安·怀特服务预计将导致艾滋病毒发病率大幅上升.
- 这些发现凸显了持续的瑞安·怀特计划运营对公共卫生的关键重要性.
- 确保持续获得护理对于控制艾滋病毒流行病至关重要.
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