骨折风险评估工具的预测能力:系统审查的概述
Griselda-Adriana Cruz-Priego1,2,3, Berenice Araiza-Nava1,2, Lucía Méndez-Sánchez1,2,3
1Clinical Epidemiology Research Unit, Hospital Infantil de Mexico "Federico Gomez", Mexico City, Mexico.
概括
这次审查发现了26种骨折风险预测工具,大多数的性能中等 (AUC为0.7-0.75). 性能差异很大,突出了需要考虑工具的特点,准确的断裂预测.
科学领域:
- 骨质疏松症的研究研究.
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 骨折风险预测工具对于骨质疏松症管理至关重要.
- 现有的工具在复杂性和预测性能方面差异很大.
- 需要对当前工具进行全面的概述.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和概述关于骨折风险预测工具的现有系统审查.
- 评估各种骨折风险评估工具的预测能力和性能指标.
主要方法:
- 包括评估骨折风险工具预测能力的系统审查.
- 主要结果:从接收器运行特征 (ROC) 分析得出的曲线下的面积 (AUC).
- 专注于针对一般成年人群 (男性和女性) 的工具.
主要成果:
- 确定了26种不同的骨折风险预测工具,最多有21,717个变量.
- 观察到广泛的预测性能 (AUC 0.58-0.90),大多数工具在0.7-0.75.5之间.
- 没有一个单一的工具始终优于其他工具;性能在不同研究中波动.
结论:
- 大多数骨折风险模型显示中等预测性表现 (AUC 0.7-0.75).
- 比较工具需要仔细考虑其设计,变量和数据.
- 诸如性别,年龄,骨折类型和预测时间框架等因素会影响临床实践中的工具实用性.
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