挪威在2024年因任何原因死亡率过高
Richard Aubrey White1, Anders B Nygaard2, Arne Søraas2
1Independent Researcher, Oslo, Norway.
Scandinavian journal of public health
|September 9, 2025
概括
挪威的过度死亡率持续到2024年,这表明了新的基线. 这表明,SARS-CoV-2的持续传播可能与死亡人数的增加有关,特别是在年轻人群中.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 挪威官方对2024年过度死亡率的计算使用了包括2023年在内的参考期,这一年的过度死亡率很高,导致没有过度的结论.
- 这种方法可能会掩盖过度死亡率的真实程度及其潜在的驱动因素,如COVID-19.
研究的目的:
- 估计2024年挪威的过度死亡率,以大流行前 (2010-2019) 年为参考期.
- 为识别可能与COVID-19相关的过度死亡率提供基础.
主要方法:
- 采用了负二项式模型,在2010-2019年的数据上进行训练.
- 根据年龄组 (0,1-19,20-39,40-64,65-79,80-89,90岁以上) 和性别分析了死亡率.
- 使用了两种预测方法:将2023年的预测推进 (保守) 和线性推断到2024年 (非保守).
主要成果:
- 保守的方法估计在2024年有2898例过剩死亡 (7.0%的过剩).
- 在较年轻的年龄组中发现了显著的过剩死亡率:1-19岁 (36.6%的过剩),20-39岁 (17.6%的过剩),40-64岁 (10.6%的过剩) 和65-79岁 (13.7%的过剩).
- 年龄在1-39岁和40-64岁之间的个体分别占总死亡率的约5%和15%.
结论:
- 从2022年到2024年,持续的过度死亡率表明,可能会转向新的,较高的基线死亡率.
- 这一趋势可能意味着挪威疫情前死亡率下降的趋势发生了逆转.
- 这些发现表明,自2022年以来,SARS-CoV-2的持续传播与死亡率的增加有关,特别是在65岁以下的人群中.
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