气候变暖正在扩大美洲和亚洲的登革热负担
Marissa L Childs1,2,3, Kelsey Lyberger4,5, Mallory J Harris4,6,7
1Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
概括
气候变化显著增加登革热发病率,特别是在较冷的地区. 人为变暖与18%的历史登革热病例有关,未来预计会增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对公众健康构成重大威胁,特别是在载体传播疾病方面.
- 最近登革热发病率的增加与气候变化有关,但确切的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 量化人类气候变化对历史和未来登革热发病率的影响.
- 评估不同地理区域温度和登革热之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 汇集了来自亚洲和美洲21个国家的地方级登革热发病率数据.
- 分析了温度和登革热之间的非线性关系,确定了发病率的最佳温度范围.
- 利用推断的温度反应来估计登革热与变暖相关的部分,并预测未来的变化.
主要成果:
- 确定了非线性温度与登革热的关系,峰值发病率在27.8°C,在较低温度时最大的变暖影响.
- 据估计,历史上登革热发病率的18%是由于人为变暖造成的.
- 到本世纪中叶,未来的气候变暖可能会使登革热发病率增加49%至76%,而较冷的地区会出现最显著的增长.
结论:
- 人类引起的气候变暖对登革热在流行地区的负担产生了重大影响.
- 预计未来的气候变化将增加登革热发病率,特别是在目前较冷的地区.
- 公共卫生规划和风险减轻策略对于应对气候变化驱动的登革热日益严重的威胁至关重要.
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