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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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整合意见动态和差异性游戏建模,以实现可持续地下水管理
Hao Chen1, Changxin Xu1, Chenchen Tong2
1Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; Investment Research Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
Water research
|September 9, 2025
概括
地下水过度提取问题是通过一种新的模型来解决的,该模型将社会论动态与提取游戏联系起来. 该研究发现,虽然消耗可以自我调节,但弱的共识会增加治理成本,突出需要凝聚力的领导和结构化的沟通.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 由于用户互动的分散化,地下水过度提取带来了重大挑战.
- 现有的游戏理论模型往往忽略了认知和社会因素,假设有理性代理.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种结合模型,将意见动态与地下水提取差异化游戏结合起来.
- 为了捕捉机构权威和资源管理中利益相关者的不断变化的偏好之间的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 一个新的模型,将意见动态与地下水提取差异性游戏理论结合起来.
- 参数校准使用西拉曼查水层 (西班牙) 的数据.
- 分析利益相关者的税收偏好在等级社会结构影响提取决策.
主要成果:
- 水库枯竭可以通过降低税收和提取来触发自我调节机制.
- 由于合规性不确定性,社会共识薄弱会提高治理成本.
- 领导者凝聚力对于全系统共识至关重要;统一的税收在行为异质的情况下是无效的.
结论:
- 有效的地下水治理需要承认有限的认知分歧,一致的领导力和结构化的沟通.
- 拟议的框架为资源管理提供了一种基于行为的观点.
- 未来的研究应该将适应性行为和空间异质性纳入治理模型.
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