北太平洋南部模式对厄尔尼诺的演变的影响比3月的麦登-朱利安振荡对厄尔尼诺的影响更大
Yu Liang1, Shang-Ping Xie1, Alexey Fedorov2,3
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Science advances
|September 10, 2025
概括
季初的麦登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 活动对厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 发展的影响有限. 然而,北太平洋大气的变化在ENSO进化中起着更重要的作用.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素.
- 西风爆发 (WWBs),通常与麦登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 相关,被假定会影响ENSO.
- 量化MJO对ENSO演变的具体贡献仍然具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 评估3月MJO对ENSO后续发展的影响.
- 为了隔离内部大气变化的对ENSO的影响.
- 将MJO的影响与其他气候驱动因素进行比较.
主要方法:
- 采用了一种集体后方法.
- 设计了专门隔离内部大气变化的方法.
- 专注于3月MJO事件对ENSO的影响.
主要成果:
- 3月的MJO,即使在有利的条件下,由于弹赤道空海合较弱,对ENSO的直接影响有限.
- 北太平洋振荡引起的南极模式对ENSO有更持久的影响.
- 夏威夷的太平洋-北美模式相关的旋风异常也影响ENSO.
结论:
- 3月份的MJO活动本身并不是ENSO演变的可靠预测指标.
- 北太平洋大气的变化对于理解ENSO发展至关重要.
- 未来的ENSO预测模型应该考虑北太平洋的影响.
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