软弱的陆地碳汇假设.
James T Randerson1,2, Yue Li3, Weiwei Fu1
1Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
Science advances
|September 10, 2025
概括
全球陆地碳汇大概是以前估计的大小的一半. 这项研究修订了碳预算,建议土地沉降较弱,并相应地调整海洋和化石燃料流量.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 碳循环研究 碳循环研究
背景情况:
- 当代的全球碳预算评估总是报告一个显著的净土地碳汇.
- 这种既定的范式是基于各种估计方法,包括大气逆转.
研究的目的:
- 审查净土地碳汇范式的证据.
- 用大气逆转和卫星生物质数据量化全球和北半球陆地沉降估计的差异.
- 为了测试净土地沉没比通常报告的要弱的假设.
主要方法:
- 审查陆地碳汇现有证据.
- 量化大气逆转和卫星衍生的植被生物质时间序列之间的差异.
- 综合数据以估计全球和区域的碳流.
- 调整海洋和化石燃料的碳流量,以与陆地沉降估计相协调.
主要成果:
- 全球净土地碳汇估计为2000年至2019年的0.8 ± 0.7 PgC/年,约为全球碳项目估计的一半.
- 同时调整显示,海洋沉没量增加了8%,化石燃料排放量减少了6%.
- 经过修订的预算部分协调了植被碳,南北二氧化碳梯度和O2趋势的限制.
结论:
- 净陆地碳汇可能比广泛报道的要弱得多.
- 建议对模型进行修改,以与较弱的陆地水槽保持一致.
- 建议进一步研究和观察方法来验证这一假设.
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