登革热发病率和死亡率的趋势:中断时间序列分析,巴西,2001-2022年
Tatiane Fernandes Portal de Lima Alves da Silva1, Henry Maia Peixoto2, Lúcia Rolim Santana de Freitas2
1Ministério da Saúde, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente, Brasília, DF, Brazil.
概括
从2001年至2009年,巴西的登革热发病率保持稳定,国家指南没有可检测的影响. 然而,2010年以后,登革热死亡率在大多数地区显著下降.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 登革热在巴西是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,需要有效的控制策略.
- 了解登革热发病率和死亡率的时间趋势对于评估公共卫生干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2001年至2022年巴西宏观地区登革热发病率和死亡率的时间趋势.
- 评估2009年发布的"预防和控制登革热国家指南"对这些指标的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用普莱斯-温斯顿通用线性回归进行了中断时间序列分析.
- 关于登革热发病率和死亡率的数据是从巴西的可报告疾病信息系统和死亡率信息系统中提取的.
- 计算了年度百分比变化和95%置信区间 (95%CI),以确定趋势的意义.
主要成果:
- 巴西的登革热发病率在2001年至2009年期间保持稳定,在2010年至2022年期间没有发现显著变化.
- 登革热死亡率从2001年到2009年增加.
- 在2010年至2022年期间,死亡率显著下降:北方 (-30.0%),东北 (-27.9%),东南 (-20.1%),中西部 (-17.8%). 南部地区显示固定利率.
结论:
- 在整个研究期间,巴西的登革热发病率保持稳定,国家指南没有明显的影响.
- 虽然登革热死亡率最初增加 (2001-2009),但在2010年之后在大多数地区观察到大幅度的逐步减少.
- 结果表明,尽管发病率稳定,但2010年之后实施的干预措施对减少登革热相关死亡率产生了积极影响.
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