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全球森林碳泄漏和替代效应潜力:瑞典森林部门的案例
Maximilian Schulte1, Pekka Lauri2, Fulvio Di Fulvio2
1Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Energy and Technology, Lennart Hjelms väg 9, Uppsala, Sweden.
Journal of environmental management
|September 10, 2025
概括
全球森林砍伐减少缓解气候变化到2070年,即使有碳泄漏. 全球越来越多的伐木导致排放,这凸显了可持续森林管理和全球政策合作的必要性.
科学领域:
- 林业科学 林业科学
- 气候变化缓解减缓 气候变化缓解减缓
- 全球碳循环分析
背景情况:
- 林业部门通过碳捕获,木材产品储存和替代效应在减缓气候变化中的作用.
- 市场诱导的补偿性圆木收获 (泄漏) 可以抵消区域森林管理变化的气候效益.
- 需要对森林部门气候影响进行全球评估,包括市场驱动的泄漏.
研究的目的:
- 对森林部门进行全球气候变化缓解评估,特别考虑市场效应泄漏.
- 评估森林管理变化对全球气候减缓的影响,以瑞典为案例研究.
- 分析木材采伐和消费对气候变化的影响,考虑泄漏和替代潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用全球森林部门模型来模拟森林动态和碳流.
- 采用木材流量分析来追踪圆木的移动,并确定泄漏途径.
- 综合生命周期库存数据以量化木制品对气候的影响和替代效应.
主要成果:
- 全球木材采伐减少导致净气候变化减缓到2070年,尽管泄漏和遗弃储存/替代潜力.
- 增加的国内木材采伐导致全球排放,直到2100年;增加的国内木材产品消费是有利的,如果替代效应实现.
- 圆木收获泄漏率在40-60%,森林碳泄漏率在50-80%,主要影响北美和亚洲,随着时间的推移转移到拉丁美洲.
结论:
- 全球森林政策合作对于避免泄漏和增强气候变化减缓效益至关重要.
- 解决木材需求的驱动因素和促进高效,可持续的木材使用对于最大限度地提高气候效益至关重要.
- 由于市场引起的泄漏,森林管理决策具有重大全球影响,需要协调的国际战略.
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