评估功能形式选择在制定高速公路安全手册预测模型的校准功能的重要性
Madeline Blair1, Srinivas Reddy Geedipally2, Mohammadali Shirazi3
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States.
Journal of safety research
|September 10, 2025
概括
选择正确的校准函数是调整高速公路安全手册 (HSM) 撞击预测模型适应当地条件的关键. 简单的函数最适合较小的数据集,而复杂的函数更适合较大的样本.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 交通安全研究 交通安全研究
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 高速公路安全手册 (HSM) 事故预测模型需要对新司法管辖区进行校准.
- 传统的校准使用了标量因子,但功能形式提供了更多的灵活性.
- 功能形式选择对校准准确性的影响,特别是有限的数据,还不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种功能形式的性能,以校准HSM预测模型.
- 为了确定样本大小对最佳功能形式选择的影响.
- 为交通安全从业人员提供有关选择适当校准功能的指导.
主要方法:
- 为校准功能开发了12种不同的功能形式.
- 利用了德克萨斯州多车道高速公路的数据集.
- 使用适合度指标评估绩效.
主要成果:
- 复杂的函数包括流量和段长的流量和段长显示更好地适合大,完整的数据集.
- 更简单的函数,特别是仅使用分段长度的函数,随着样本大小的减少而表现更好.
- 选择的功能形式显著影响校准准确度.
结论:
- 大多数评估的功能形式对于HSM模型校准是有用的.
- 最佳的功能形式取决于可用的数据和样本大小.
- 实践者必须仔细考虑功能形式的选择,以准确地对HSM模型进行本地校准.
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