与波多黎各非最佳温度相关的死亡风险和负担
Francisco Díaz-Collado1,2, Lingzhi Chu1,2, Daniel Carrión1,2
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America.
概括
气候变化对波多黎各的影响
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 加勒比海小岛屿发展中国家 (SIDS) 由于气候变化而面临越来越多的高温事件.
- 关于SIDS中与温度相关的死亡率的流行病学证据有限,特别是在城市以外的地区.
- 波多黎各经常经历热季,引发了人们对公共卫生影响的担忧.
研究的目的:
- 调查波多黎各非最佳温度与全因死亡率之间的关联.
- 量化各个市镇中因低温和高温而导致的过度死亡率.
- 为有针对性的干预确定特定易受温度相关死亡的市镇.
主要方法:
- 通过使用2015-2023年市级死亡率和温度数据进行了一项案例时间序列研究.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (dlnm) 的条件准松回归来分析温度与死亡率的关系.
- 估计了极低/极高温度和过度死亡率分数的相对风险,并根据湿度,季节性和周日进行调整.
主要成果:
- 非最佳温度 (低和高) 与死亡风险增加有显著的关联.
- 极低的温度增加了所有原因的死亡风险1.23倍,极高的温度增加了1.16倍.
- 与温度相关的死亡人数占总死亡人数的3.88%,在各市镇之间存在显著的空间差异.
结论:
- 波多黎各的低温和高温都带来了严重的死亡风险.
- 该研究强调了与温度相关的死亡负担的实质性空间差异.
- 调查结果为在波多黎各制定特定的城市气候适应和减缓战略提供了关键证据.
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