关键矿产瓶限制了低碳能源部署中的子技术选择
Donghui Yu1,2, Baihe Gu1,2, Mengye Zhu3
1Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.
iScience
|September 11, 2025
概括
全球气候目标要求到2030年,关键矿产需求增加6倍,这可能会压迫和稀土等关键材料的供应. 矿产瓶可能会影响可再生能源技术选择.
科学领域:
- 能源政策和技术 能源政策和技术
- 材料科学与工程 材料科学与工程
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 实现气候目标的全球努力需要在2030年之前迅速扩大可再生能源和低碳技术.
- 过渡到清洁能源与对特定关键矿物的需求密切相关.
研究的目的:
- 量化由全球气候目标和可再生能源部署场景驱动的关键矿产需求.
- 确定潜在的矿物供应限制及其对选择低碳子技术的影响.
主要方法:
- 基于场景的自下而上的分析被用来预测关键矿物质需求.
- 该研究研究了矿物质可用性和各种清洁能源子技术的可行性之间的相互依赖关系.
主要成果:
- 预计每年的关键矿产需求将增加六倍,从2022年的470万到2030年的3000万.
- 确定了天然石墨,,,,,,银,,铜和稀土元素的潜在供应限制.
- 特定的技术面临风险:薄膜光伏 (,),矿合电池 (),风力轮机 (稀土) 和全固态电池 ().
结论:
- 关键矿产需求的大幅增加对实现雄心勃勃的气候目标构成挑战.
- 通过材料效率和矿物效率技术的开发来解决潜在的矿物瓶对于弹性能源转型至关重要.
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