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一个流行病风险指数,以改善美国和墨西哥之间的供应链决策:一项COVID-19病例研究
Billy Hernawan1, Guillermo F Duran-Sierra1, Enrique Zarate-Losoya2
1Zachry Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America.
PloS one
|September 11, 2025
概括
社会脆弱性指数 (SVI) 被调整为评估COVID-19期间的美墨供应链风险. 这种增强的指数量化了区域风险,有助于贸易和资源分配的决策.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生和流行病学
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 风险评估和风险管理
背景情况:
- 疾病预防控制中心 (CDC) 的社会脆弱性指数 (SVI) 是使用社会经济,家庭和住房数据衡量美国县脆弱性的标准.
- COVID-19大流行凸显了双国供应链的风险,特别是在美国和墨西哥之间,这些国家是USMCA等协议下的重要贸易伙伴.
- 现有的SVI方法虽然在资源分配和风险评估方面很受欢迎,但需要扩展以解决全球事件加剧的复杂供应链漏洞.
研究的目的:
- 在风险框架内分析SVI表述,评估其适用于决策的适度.
- 扩大SVI以纳入在COVID-19大流行期间对供应链风险评估至关重要的变量和流程.
- 为美墨供应链开发一个双国风险指数,与全面的风险框架相兼容.
主要方法:
- 该研究分析了SVI的结构与风险框架 (危险,脆弱性,后果) 相比.
- 为美国和墨西哥的供应链开发了一个案例研究,将SVI调整为风险指数,使用实证累积密度函数 (ECDF) 进行统计证明.
- 来自美国和墨西哥的公开数据被协调,以创建一个双国风险指数地图.
主要成果:
- 脆弱性被确定为一个三因素风险评估模型的仅一个组成部分.
- 制定了一个扩展的双国风险指数,与拟议的风险框架相兼容.
- 由此产生的双国风险指数图显示了区域供应链风险的量化.
结论:
- 该SVI提供了一个基础,但需要扩展到一个全面的风险指数,以充分解决供应链挑战.
- 开发的双国风险指数为评估美墨供应链风险和为战略决策提供信息提供了可量化的基线.
- 这种方法可以应用于其他路径依赖系统,为区域风险评估和改进提供可扩展的方法.
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